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Facing Uncertainty:

Small Business Cash Flow Patterns in 25 U.S. Cities

Cover of Facing Uncertainty report

Researchers, small business service providers, policymakers, and small business owners alike observe that cash flow management challenges are pervasive in the sector, but empirical assessment of cash flow challenges and their effects on small firm performance have been elusive. This report builds on prior research by the JPMorgan Chase Institute and uses high-frequency administrative data to classify small business cash flow patterns. We analyze the effects of regular and irregular cash flow patterns on the survival and growth of small firms in and across cities.

View the Report Facing Uncertainty

The Small Business Sector in Urban America: Growth and Vitality in 25 Cities

This study, which follows up on JPMorgan Chase Institute 2018 report on small business growth, vitality, and cash flows, focuses on differences in small business financial performance across 25 US cities. Leveraging high-frequency, de-identified financial data from a sample of 290,000 small operating businesses, this report aims to inform differences in financial outcomes in the small business sector across some of the largest cities in the US, providing a lens into the composition and contributions of different types of firms to the aggregate revenue growth and exit rates of the small business sector.

View the Report Small Business Financial Outcomes in Cities

Student Loan Payments: Evidence from 4 Million Families

Graduation caps made of money

Student loan debt is the fastest growing household debt category, having more than doubled over the last ten years to $1.5 trillion in 2018, second only to mortgage debt, and affecting 45 million borrowers. Although the financial returns from a higher education degree over a lifetime typically exceed the costs, roughly 22 percent of student loan borrowers are in default. In this research, the JPMorgan Chase Institute aims to describe how student loan payments fit into the context of families’ larger financial lives. We offer the debate insight into a new, high-frequency cash flow perspective on student loan payments and how they relate to a family’s income, liquid assets, spending, and other debt payments.

Read the Report  “Student Loan Payments: Evidence from 4 Million Families”


Trading Equity for Liquidity

For many families, homeownership is a vital part of the American dream. Often, their mortgage will be their greatest debt and their mortgage payment will be their largest recurring monthly expense. This report aims to answer important questions about the role of liquidity, equity, income levels, and payment burden as determinants of mortgage default. Our analysis suggests that liquidity may have been a more important predictor of mortgage default than equity, income level, or payment burden.

Read the Report about Bank Data on the Relationship Between Liquidity and Mortgage Default

The San Francisco Economy: Household and Small Business Financial Outcomes

With a GDP of $510 billion, the San Francisco metropolitan area is the sixth largest economy in the U.S. and an important hub in the global economy. To better understand the financial lives of U.S. households and small businesses, the JPMorgan Chase Institute explored questions of economic relevance through the lens of our de-identified, granular data to provide localized insights on the San Francisco Economy, including trends in out-of-pocket healthcare spending, Online Platform Economy participation and revenues, local commerce, and small business financial outcomes.

Read the Report  The San Francisco Economy: Household and Small Business Financial Outcomes

Spotlight: Profiles of Local Consumer Commerce

It’s time to use hard data and smart insights to address the complex problems that affect us all.

That’s why we established the JPMorgan Chase Institute.

The JPMorgan Chase Institute aims to help decision makers – policymakers, businesses, and nonprofit leaders – appreciate the scale, granularity, diversity, and interconnectedness of the global economic system and use better facts, timely data and thoughtful analysis to make smarter decisions to advance global prosperity.

Learn more about the JPMorgan Chase Institute